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maria: good tuesday morning thanks for joining us this morning i hope having a good morning. i am maria bartiromo. tuesday, february 13, 8:00 a.m. on the button on the east coast time for hot topic of the hour on capitol hill are former hunter biden business partner tony bobulinski a closed-door testimony in front of house oversight judiciary committee part of impeachment inquiry to president biden bobulinski working with hunter biden to create holds with cefc claims he met with joe biden in 2017 told me he met with biden many times. in a statement to fox news digital in center bobulinski demand president biden stop lying in fact what he told me

directly, said to me stop lying about the meeting call on him to correct the record. james biden to appear for o depositions next week hunter biden expected february 28 we will see what we get but oversight committee supposed money in the millions that the biden family has taken from china. todd: when you speak with people working this case call it they point to tony bobulinski as lynchpin when you look at people in hunter biden/joe biden scandalized limited to question certainly people's credibility put on scanned quoted unquote as witnesses tony bobulinski you can't do that said repeatedly i am doing what is in the best interests might have country he is not compromised, he is almost like two irs whispers whistleblowers what was mote

invasion in it for you are nothing for two whistleblowers only the truth that is what makes tony dangerous to the flats. maria: this weekend, somebody suggested to me that ton bobulinski has more reporting, and he has on tape of him actual talking with president biden, then-vice president biden about various deals they were going to do we will see if he actually, talks, about further recordings that he has this person said he has been saving for a rainy day kelly. kelly: well, certainly having one today in new york, listen. i am very interested to read transcript we have heard from associates of hunter biden and there hasn't been a smoking gun maybe this is the -- >> what do you mean hasn't been a smoking gun. kelly: there has are not been a smoking gun that ties president biden to receiving money. maria: ask. maria: there were emails that

president biden had about 50 emails around the time he traveled to ukraine. with eric schwerin, why wouldn'tn't he the direct emails with money guy of hunter biden business then say he has no knowledge of anything that could be a smoking gun another one all emails 10% for "the big guy" then witness testimony,there is that as well, 20 million dollars in payments from foreign sources i have a problem with you saying there is no smoking gun because i think the republicans have exposed a lot of smoking guns. >> think that is fair to point those things out but when you say "the big guy" we can wink, wink i know who "the big guy" is i think hunter biden has to get credit has been very kaefl about not saying, my dad, the president, so that is why where i say there is no smoking gun, because i think going to take lot to get voters, and for the

impeachment process to fully go through. maria: todd, you showed a techs to tony bobulinski, james said something like don't discuss. todd: . >> they don't i want out. maria: don't discuss joe's just a moment. todd: i believe underlying premise don't want n that to get out tony bobulinski says they shouldn't want that to get out it underscores i don't do want have beat up on kelly day i will sigh a lot of people in prison for a lot less when they didn't have quote/unquote smoking gun evidence when you put all evidence together again there are people in prison people convicted for a lot less, so, yes, we all want this actual smoking gun. to use a boston word irregardless, you don't need there is enough in my estimation i am done beating

up on kelly. maria: democrats keep saying there is no smoking gun despite the fact every day james comer comes on i spoke with james comer on "sunday morning futures" hear from the chairman of the oversight committee what he told me sunday. . >> we need to no exactly what the chinese were paying biden family members for i think if -- we've seen with all the evidence played out they weren't paying hunter biden for his brilliant mind. they sure as heck weren't paying jim biden for his brilliant mind we want to know what chinese expected of bidens what exactly bidens delivered. do you believe tony bobulinski has discussions he has been holding for rainy do a. >> bidens attacked him, you can interview tony bobulinski a picture what those of us on oversight committee have been through. we've seen obstructed we have

been harassed we've been intimidated. maria: skw, by the way, rob walker another partner in the hunter biden companies told investigators joe biden attend a meeting where he hunter biden and other business appearances chairman cefc having hunch you can with aer did not know consolidate probably 2017 he was certain joe biden was out of the office as v.p. at the time, said joe biden was not there for the entire meeting but purpose to discuss, ways we can work together. . >> meeting talking about important stuff i think, to know new york energy companies in china-ukraine the way hunter biden does all in front of our faces so blatant influence peddling going on right now seems like we can't somehow you know indict him for it i don't understand it. >> they said they can confirm joe biden met with every foreign national who funnels

money to his son. >> kelly. kelly: i hear you i think journalist capital here or thinking of myself sitting in maybe a trial, right? there needs to be the incontrovertible evidence i have convict president of the united states, the fact there -- maria: biden complain paying all the bills for the family? one point. >> yes. >> so, hunter biden bying all bills getting money paying like construction bills for his father. >> i pay all my father's bills, [laughter] we got to go i think interesting about extra types, shows than to bobulinski is playing chess when everybody else playing checkers how dangerous he is to this democrat narrative we haven't heard from tony in a while following 2020 election a big deal the reason on hill

i don't think i can underscore that enough. maria: we will leave it there todd, we're getting started a lot coming up economic data could be market moving will the president physical exam include -- white house says gop doctors caucus north carolina congressman murphy to tell us more on that you are watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. stay with us. ♪ all my love ♪ ♪ and did all i could to prevent recurrence. verzenio reduces the risk of recurrence of hr-positive, her2-negative, node-positive, early breast cancer with a high chance of returning as determined by your doctor when added to hormone therapy. diarrhea is common, may be severe, or cause dehydration or infection. at the first sign, call your doctor, start an anti-diarrheal , and drink fluids. before taking verzenio, tell your doctor about any fever,

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but, you know, there's as much we're getting done. >> president biden, a big round of applause from supporters, after attempting to joke about his memory during a speech yesterday the white house says now that president biden next physical exam will not conclude include a cognitive test. >> does white house think the idea of president taking cognitive tests as a part of this physical is a legitimate idea his physical which i president approves every day how he operates making really difficulty decisions on behalf of the american people whether domestic whether national security that is how the doctor sees it. >> joining me north carolina congressman greg murphy cocompare of gop doctors

caucus a member of ways and means committee in our reaction no cognitive test. >> i think individuals over 70 need to have a neurocognitive testers about a we do at hospital for surgeons we check every year, the fact that he's he has a lot of questions, about his cognitive state right now needs to be absolutely -- absolutely needs to be done, i will say this, you know, for those saying trump because of his age now should do this, it is a very well-known fact in the medical literature says someone's intelligence is tied to risk of having dementia later in life those more intelligent have lesser risk later in life joe was proven in younger scholar days near bottom of law school class not as intelligent maybe as president trump has been so it is comparing apples and oranges point-blank if he wants to

approve intelligent take a damn test it is very simple. >> what do you say about special counsel robert her saying elder man with issues too feeble to prosecute of a if you put him in front of a jury like prosecutor said no jury because of mere sympathy is going to convict someone can't remember her name this, that, president biden does fine when up in front of a teleprompter when you take those away, you know "katie bar the door" who knows who you he is going to today it how many this times fumble it if you look at the difference between he and former president trump able to talk in front of a microphone without teleprompters, it is night and day, yes, if there is nothing to hide then show the american people, and adopt, you know the fact that press lady talks about how he does this every day, he is not doing this every day the

american people know that. they know from day one he is not running the presidency. maria: we've been talking wide-open border look what is going on in senate passed 95-billion-dollar foreign aide package 60 billion dollars ukraine 14 billion israel two billion red sea 4 billion indo-pacific region, nine billion for aid to gaza. >> j.d. vance posted on x this morning a 61 billion dollar aid package house won't pass the current bill we must fix our country before more are resources to ukraine will mike johnson take it to the floor? what is your reaction to once again seeing your question colleagues send money to ukraine could elsewhere, before putting security at the border? >> you know, i don't think speaker johnson brings this to the floor the sad fact we would not be in this position, if it were not for joe biden

doing what he did in afghanistan, i fully believe that he is the one created the conditions, available, for putin to invade ukraine wouldn't have to be dealing with sovereignty of ukraine, what does on in iran excuse me in israel same we would not deal with these could deal with one thing important to all americans, that is occupier southern border, the fact that the democrats literally want to pour people into this country to try to influenza are voting in the future is point-blank the issue does he bring to the floor i don't think so he does do i want to help ukraine do i think it is vital for world interest absolutely same with israel, we have to protect our southern border first. >> today the house will hold a second vote to beach department of homeland security homeland security secretary mayorkas axios with

explosive piece how biden botched the border a former administration official said so-called border czar kamala harris at best ineffective the team focused on addressing root you causes of migrants from guatemala, el salvador, recently coming from china top biden advisory former advisory susan rice blaming on becerra called him an idiot in this report revealing white house wanted do limit mayorkas media disappearance because of all this i have been told by sources it is susan rice running things -- from, you know, a long time for when joe biden worked in oval office she was in charge i don't know if you believe that to be true what do you think is going on behind scenes about the border? they recognize the public cares number one issue for the election. >> yeah, you know i have side

many, many times a public government biden not doing it kamala we talked about intelligence being a risk factor for dementia, let's not even go there with her, the point-blankening you ask what is motivation why are you doing this get no the answers whatever has to be one thing of, it has to be bringing people into this country to changing democratic vote god forbid if we got to be a one party government which is what the democrats want, we are done as a country absolutely done as a kaun, mayorkas needs to be impeached we are one vote short last time he has breach of trust violated the laws of the immigration and naturalization act point-blank needed to be impeached needs to go away who needs to go away joe biden as president of the country he is the respond supposedly pulling strings with that you will should deal with this also we talked about a few guests talking about a smoke on the ground gun there is absolutely a smoking gun

shows 40 thousand dollars transferred to his accounted after kicking out the ukraine prosecutor all smoke and mirrors bagpipe of lies spewing out on daily basis following american people they want to change beinging he elections,whole thing. >> the 40 million dollars that went to joe biden's account was 40,000 dollars larger 400,000 dollars that first went to hunter biden, 10% for "the big guy", i guess. >> absolutely. >> i want to ask you about national security issues, because, obviously, the wide-open border is a major national security threat, to this country right now because we don't know who business coming in but equally threatening what is going on the communist china the biden information talked about how tiktok should be banned from all government devices now biden campaign joining tiktok

despite president signing a law when banned chinese app on all federal devices even biden fbi director christopher wray warned about dangers, gathering on american surveillance think using tiktok is it a security risk or not. >> absolutely a security risk we are not -- china we are at war with china we won't admit it they ins it bringing war to our shores, they are killing hundreds of thousands americans with fentanyl every year disrupting supply chain doing all these things look at bigger picture what democrats are willing to do anything, anything lie, cheat steal build to win elections, here we are with tiktok, reaching out being -- being very smart reaching out to a populous that normally not spoken to by

republicans we need to play the same game we need to fight them with our own, you know with our own resources, we need to go after hymn. tiktok good lord swifties all other things are meant to appeal to emotions not meant to appeal to rational thought like having the -- the adults versus kids in the room as to who really should run the country >> we leave it there congressman thanks very much for joining be this morning so good to have you we appreciate your time. >> thank you so much. >> congresswoman greg murphy in d.c., we'll be right back. . with chase freedom unlimited, you can cashback 3% on dining including take-out. cashback on flapjacks, baby backs, or the tacos at the taco shack. nah, i'm working on my six pack. well, good luck with that. earn big with chase freedom unlimited with no annual fee.

who really should run the

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♪ ♪ surveillance maria: we'll pell take a look futures market under selling pressure ahead of january cpi numbers out in about 3 minutes take a look at where we stand dow industrials down 50, the nasdaq down 117, s&p 500 lower by 16. the cpi could be a market mover, of course, inflation down from the highs of a year ago, economists expecting month-over-month prices up 2/10 of a percent, year-over-year expecting cpi up 2.9%, ryan thoughts on this report how important is it for example to the fed meeting in march. ryan: i think we are all kind of onboard fed not cutting quickly i think a good thing

economic growth has been better-than-expected fed worried about situation like 60s stagflation beat inflation mid-70s it came back with revenge, think that is what fed most concerned about beating inflation but if we get a surge later this year could be because strong economic growth so i think close to that election, when start to cut rate maybe by summer fed future market, two times, i don't think realistic hostilities in red sea ships forced to go around african horn going to see a spike more expensive to travel they are going to pass it on. kelly: travel delays costs the other thing with red sea what impact on energy prices eventually if something does heat up in that regional if we were involved more so than now because when you look at cpi

the decrease has been driven primarily by shortfall in energy if we see that tick up then you have an issue here where what i am look for being today is the core number, is it sticky are we still seeing the shelter prices? you know remaining high that inflation rate? but, if we are still seeing most of that that downtick driven by energy, maybe fed should wait. maria: you've got, shelter as an issue, the essentials, the food, and energy, really among the areas that we're going to be focused on this from highs still up over the last three years. >> give you, shelter hits you hit nail on headed shelter costs stubborn number you are seeing you had housing market not moving much if you are sitting with, 3% interest rate you are not moving out of your house supply of houses limited whole core millennials want to buy houses driving rents up

nothing to buy. i mean that is a longer term problem because of supply, the supply house building last decade problematic with demographics they have to build more houses one reason housing over 50% we need to built a stubborn number for awhile dropping down like a lot of people expect. >> you are watching earnings in have middle fourth quarter reporting coca-cola this morning was this line with expectations on earnings and better-than-expected revenue we are hearing from lyft. >> cisco could be a market motive, that is the portfolio child of the one stock that was really melted up during tech bubble, still not back to the highs in 2,000 but i expect those earnings should come in pretty strong, trading reasonable low multiple right

now i think during season in general continues to be strong, 75% a companies beat. >> market tanking dow industrials down 220 points because consumer price index is hitting the tape market is reacting this could be a knee-jerk reaction dow industrials down 175. cheryl: the numbers here wing, we came in, hort than expected above estimates why market tank month-over-month i go through quick.3%, street looking for .2 year-over-year at 3.1 street looking for 2.9. better than last month, 3.4 now 3.1 economists looking for something weaker than that okay? so we still have inflation, all right. , core month-over-month,.4% street looking for gain.3% again, hotter than expected, then the core year-over-year, hotter than expected, 3.9%,

and, again, street was looking for 3.7 so we didn't get that, okay. where are we seeing, the boost rain rain housing month-over-month gainp.6% jump in food month-over-month.4% we all overall energy next month month fall.9 gasoline a piece down 3.3, month-over-month again you are seeing, if foopd and energy headline number that is showing up that is where, the issue certainly is, okay but, again, looks likes shelter let me dig into report quick the first line government telling us, i have a feeling going to be shelter again, yeah talking with the rise in shelter again. that was about half we are seeing stronger, now. so it was shelter, that was . % first thing government

citing in this report.6%, contributed over two-thirds monthly, a shelter story. you can't take out the food, the food is also the issue the food index that hump.4%, at home jumped .4%, the month-over-month gain, again government, i told you about a fall in energy next but shelter, and food that is what is taking away, any positive upside we would have gotten from the -- from the drop in energy again what we're seeing, the pressure, and that is why you are seeing the market hitting. maria: down 3 -- right now cheryl, you are right nasdaq down 284 joining me to react former council economic advisories chairman, distinguished fellow economics

stanford university hoover institute kevin hassett, a member of house budget buddy carter head of glob strategy paul creates fear with me ryan payne kelly o'grady, cheryl casone your reaction to numbers? >> right this is exactly what you and i have been talking about last few months, inflation is actually if you look at it will monthly numbers accelerating super core last month december, showed up almost 5%, if you take the latest core number you an yulize it, what needs to happen i don't understand what is going on with with federal funds futsdz somebody needs to slap markets in the face say there is no way cutting rates every meeting, are like spring until christmas just not going to happen. i think slap in the face is a little bit visible in market today i think really federal fund fultz need to place in hicks inflation seems accelerating the year-over-year number, you are taking off, month from a year

ago big effects on year-over-year takelast three or four months analyze them. >> if you do that looks like accelerating. >> your thoughts. >> the soft landing thesis returning around in market last year a logical inconsistent we only slow gradually people don't want more homes they want services of all kinds pushing home prices higher labor costs higher service portion of cpi still elevated you are getting much slower disinflation stickier inflation going are in aed that is what the markets have to contend with ignoring that logic. maria: are congressman how much to kablame is congress one ty too much fiscal stimulus. >> no question government spends more you have less well-known fact keep in mind

with we talk inflation us when this administration, inflation 1.4%, prices continue to go up not going to come down i talked to retailers all the time say we're not lowering prices going to keep the same, the people in america are distressed with this crushing our economy this administration especially congress we've got to stop spend. >> kelly o'grady how do you see it. kelly: one of the things mentioned was food, in fact in report four of six major grocery food indices increased you futures frejz increased, every time you go to the grocery store you are feeling that i think about what is going on in voters' minds going to the polls, you know this election season, and the fact that that is continuing to rise, feeling that, every single time that you know you add in shelter piece i am one of the millennials, right that is renting instead of plying a

home for that reason you feel all money out the window i can imagine that is happening in the minds of young voters where president biden is struggling to connect with right now. >> ryan. ryan: one hundred percent, socioeconomically doesn't matter where you are hard to buy a loem if you have a banking job, or working service job it is overall problem i agree with that. but i do want to spin not spin but positive as well nation come down a lot, over the course of that 12 months i think most importantly, if you start looking at wages are versus inflation, last two years had it where inflation outpacing wages a big problem but starting to see o other effect wages outpacing inflation the he longer term trend bodes well for the economy, but having stubborn -- shelter food costs hits every american, the biden administration as you come into election year. maria: a cheryl yields right

here you have 10-year up 12 basis points on this number causing the stock market to sell off, 4.3% on 10-year right now. cheryl: we are, again that drop that we saw as far as the u.s. interest rate futures after that cpi data something else watching kind of in line with what we're seeing treasury market, the bets are coming off the table you are going to get that -- that rate cut in month of march, watching that right after, at this point bent on june kevin, but even that might be poly anna based on numbers here remember that fed chairman powell two weeks ago to said we've got six months good data this is good, but you know, we're on a path to rate cuts a path. he didn't say actually going to be hitting rate cuts sooner rather than later you wonder

if fed told us telegraphing three, you wonder when you see numbers like this that is the market realisticing to along with treasury market donk week feel much better even june cut we've got a little bit time these numbers don't make that case. maria: what do you want to do from investment standpoint for portfolio knowing we could see a spike in inflation down the road a slowing in the economy down the road this year. >> is this it is really good question, and we will tell you at this point with market having run the way it has a lot of investors with exposure communication services, or i.t. or even consumer discretionary sector time to put cash to work in association longer term benefits industrials materials healthcare energy builds in

years to come other price -- >> what do you want to do in terms of your portfolio in terms of inflation impact do you think inflation spikes further on in the year? what is 2024 looking like to you in terms of this data? >> yeah. i he -- i think basically the 10-year needles to be in 5 range to be equilibrium the taylor rule tells fed what they need to do to get inflation under control, their below it choel time, that is why inflation is not really heading towards the target, so, you know eventual inflation is going to stay higher yields are higher or fed trying to be more atentative to taylor rule rates higher rates have to go up where does inflation come from, it is supply/demand thing in housing, nobody can buy because interest rates high how interest rates work, as everybody line up to rent

therefor you can lift rents, you have macro level, spending like -- running out of business -- getting ready everything off shelves think about it you like vietnam war spending and ukraine that drives inflation inflation is not going down interest rates have to go up that is not -- maria: a great point you make in terms of -- the -- the package going to ukraine, that that is more money are sloshing around the economy too many dollars chasing too few goods you think that is going to add to inflationary worries? >> at margin insure government spending look at all government spending cbo report just came out highlighting massive deficits, as far as eye can see only way government ahead of curve to inflate aware unless austere government doesn't look super likely. down 28% from 2023 ryan one of your good points year-to-date, in you know, from 2024, the

nasdaq is up better than 6%, the s&p 500 up 5 1/4% this year radio even a bull like you looking at this saying hold on maybe time to sell into some of this right. >> no, i don't think. maria: you are nodding your head paul christopher saying take profits of. >> i agree in tech i made that earlier in the show microsoft 3.1 trillion dollars worth double the entire energy sector in the u.s., if you get free cash flow, 135 billion, versus only 67 billion microsoft, you know, disproportionate gains need too righted at some point healthcare going to have phenomenal this year healthcare as well, diversifying money away from big tech i don't think investors will do i think blindly doing the money going

to s&p 500 disproportionately weighted to big tech tech now, time velocity in portfolio. >> weigh in on congressional spending we saw senate pass 95-billion-dollar aide package to ukraine, taiwan gaza. is that going to pass in the house? >> no. and i doubt speaker will even bring it up i hope he doesn't because we don't need to pass that we made it clear in the house that we are not going to pass more foreign aid to other countries to secure their border until we secure our border. when i am at home people ask all the time why are you sending money to other countries to secure their border our border is not secure we made that perfectly clear in the house, the senate is, obviously, not understanding that. we are serious. i hope the speaker will not bring this up. maria: kelly what are you watching. kelly: two things, one is i am looking at new vehicles, in

the data, that increased 1.0% i think back talking about day federal aid package all that money flooding, what about the strikes we just saw right the increase in wages? that is going to roll down you are seeing that increase we saw used tars constructs decrease 1.3% i wonder if that is going to cause he more inflationary pressures as we see all rising wages trickle to consumer other thing going to your point ryan about markets i hear you on being bullish when you look what we heard from a number countries i think all nine when you talked healthcare a s&p 500 rising guidance down it was negative guidance that next quarter i know you want to set expectation so market doesn't fall when they come out say we didn't do as well that is is rattling arrange in my brain. >> cheryl a what do you want's in terms of rent number energy

the underlying problem with all inflationary reethsdz is energy, oil, right. cheryl: wep oil might have get a fall in that gas prices we did but that is not helping the overall story we are getting with cpi two things you mentioned the rent story to kelly's point about rent that was also up.6% a huge problem to energy, the biden administration could turn this ship around. pun intended first off with middle east situation red sea talked about earlier think about what they are proposing now and getting sued, by the way, by api, offering three federal leases in you gulf of mexico, three, if you want better prices at gas tank you've got facilities production available here, they won't do it you know what they want? maria they want wind farms in gulf of mexico what president biden wants i don't know yes

election year you are want to appease greenes out there fine this is your average american voter that is going to the grocery store filling up their tank like wait a minute. come on this is inflation bank of america did a survey points to exactly that, the biggest transactions seeing in credit cards for january is gas tank the grocery store, but biden energy problem front and center. >> you are focused on retail sales ppi in the week i want to talk about consumer for a moment o kevin you made the point that we are seeing the effects of higher inflation, likely will spike down the road, being the stock powerful consumer retail sales coming out on thursday. >> right we've talked to a little bit about wages i want to remind people of the

historic pattern in inflationary cycles inflation goes up wages trail real wages go down people the to borrow to keep standard of living going inflation starts to drop stuck at wage inflation more or less stays until unemployment rate spikes wage inflation drops too, right now as mentioned wage inflation is reasonably strong, that is kind of like the net under trapeze artist for inflation where we stay until you unemployment goes up looks far from that sanyo continue to see months like that until unemployment rate goes up might be doesn't go up until above where they are right now. >> the same question from you ryan, paul, christopher, in terms of your thoughts on retail sales in the consumer right here paul. >> thank you know we talked,much about wages linked to inflation all of that very

true and very correct, relevant but another factor here that is liquidity, consumers still the quite a bit cash, if you exclude bottom two quintiles bottom 40% income earns focusing on middle class voters higher don't have quite the cash to spend, as that cash pile grows smaller, then you will start to see some impacts you will see, sale lower retail sales more layoffs, then you start to see unemployment rate increase, liquidity has to be accounted for. maria: ryan. ryan: i think some truth to that i think we discount how strong labor market will continue to be because we have a labor shortage in this country not going away that is demographics, if you look at you productivity gains last year off the charts, like 2.7%, arj 2.1% normal year with technologically advances ai, earnings going out into

the future,f the efficiency american worker is going to have course next couple years could be a boon, i think strong wages productivity going to keep inflation in check, and i think that is what a lot of people are missing right now i think that if this purchasing power strong this year i think will be for the american consumer if economy hotter than expected this year just like it was last year. >> kevin hassett the atlanta tracking, the economy, i don't know where they come up with numbers but, it is not slowing down it is off the highs, it was up to 4.9% right, now -- >> 3.7%. maria: do you believe that in terms of growth for the economy? >> you know i do, and, actually, talking negatives, sort of asked what am i doing with my money i think that comment about ai something we really need to pay attention to, there are a whole bunch of

new studying national bureau economic research, many coming out of stanford with some of my colleagues out there studying firms that integrate ai in process within a month or two 20% productivity gains across a wide variety of industries against interest rate inflation talk there is a positive supply chart that is underway, in the u.s., and if you go back look almost 30 years ago netscape introduced to o navigator five years in a row equities up 30% if you look at silicon valley people people like bill gates eric schmitt saying ai is bigger than internet a tug-of-war a lot of i think one of the greatest i've seen since 90s. maria: are you working on ai

in terms of regulatory front no question energy consumers committee communications technology subcommittee one of the things concentrating on ai buzz in capital not only our committee but every committee every committee is different ai impacts different sectors different ways, so, that is why you know, you say let's give it homeland we can't do that we've got to make sure that every sector s is -- maria if i can bring up one point. i had opportunity yesterday to have lunch with a group of first responders let me tell you this economy is crushing them they would all concerned about rented concerned about mortgage concerned about food concerned about gas, these are heroes, yet this economy is crushing them right now. you know, the price of signature meal chick-fil-a up 21% when you mess with price

of chicken in south georgia -- >> great point, one other issue to watch is potential for supply, shortages of that kelly i remember when you were reporting on supply shortages like a year ago you actually saw the impact, of those ships not able to delivery what they needed to delivery, how it worked through economy. kelly: i spent many a day outside the l.a. port, when it was dark you would see that line of ships, and that means, that are retailers have to kind of guess when it comes to ordering, being their inventory, all of a sudden all ships arrive, you have this surplus inventory they are scrambling to figure out what is the right thing what you are seeing right now with what is happening i know it feels really farout you adopt see that visual we did outside l.a. port same thing if you

let that going ships delayed it takes longer costs more ultimately going to trickle down to the consumer you might not have a bunch of ships waiting outside l.a. certainly going to see those prices if you let that go on too long. maria: cheryl what i have been worried about inflation spike to come, because of the hostilities in red sea. cheryl: headline crossing opec reaffirming as far as production sadly we have to look to opec, you know not you producing if domestically, the congressman buddy carter comments about food if you look at meat prices, you know this is for the for everybody, first responders paying 7.7% more than a year ago for beef for veal meats in general up 3 1/2% poultry to his point, up

more than 2% i mean numbers are crushing to the average american one thing i say about as far as, the -- the ship story kelly was talking about we have seen better supply china issue that is not problem the problem what you are seeing on screen that you are paying for emergency. >> market down 353 dow jones industrial average right now nasdaq as, also down in triple digits a decline on heels of a spike in interest rates kevin hassett how high can rates go? you mentioned 5% earlier that is what you are expecting on the 10-year? >> right i think if you go back to another 1800s good rule of thumb inflationary rate around 2% what is all interest rates are. so if you think inflation rate around 4 seems not going down very fast, then you add two,

around 6 maybe you think 2% should be, 3 hovering around 5 i don't think the long end of the curve is really doing anything that pays attention to history going to have to adjust the fed doesn't have inflation under control if they list federal funds rate higher long rates going up, if they leave it where it is, then inflation is going up in if long rates going up. maria: kevin >> no, i'm really not expect a cut in interest rates -- maria: this year. >> i'd be surprised -- no, i don't think they can the cut it this week. -- this year, the inflation data are sticky. i don't see where the rate cut comes from. maria: so if you don't have is a rate cut and this market is betting on rate cuts, 3-6, okay, if there's a surprise of no rate cuts, how significant a selloff a would you exrnghts ryan? if. >> first off a, i think it's election year with, i'm hard pressed on not getting at least one rate cut this year. but i'll say that 5% interest

rates are normal by the way. we just got used to low, low interest rates. and stock markets did well when we had 5% interest rates. so i think the fed has normalized monetary policies. we use tighten, but i call it normalizing. kevin, i want to hang with you, man. we have a lot of the same view is the. i think bottom line the market can do exceptionally well if we have strong economic growth, productivity and normal interest rates. i don't think that's crazy. maria: yeah. but this market is partly where it is because of an expectation of a cut in interest rates. you can't deny that. paul christopher, if you don't get those cut, are you boeing to see a stock market sell off later this year? >> yeah, you'll see the the market contract some, and that would be a part of a normal market year anyway, 7-10 percent percent. that's what we should expect. we want to be ready to put the cash back to work. we still think the s&p will be right around 5,000 by tend of the year, but it will have to

make adjustments for the inflation sticking around longer and for interest rates, perhaps many fewer than what the market's currently price as the panel has correctly point out. maria: the nasdaq down 1. 63%. congressman buddy carter, what is your priority in the congress? we've been talking about this wide open border and this need to secure the border. it doesn't look like that's happening. >> well, it's got to happen, otherwise there's not going to be supplement supplemental funding at least not coming from the -- maria: so then we'll see a government hutdown. are you expecting that march 1st or march 8? >> i hope not. i hope we don't. but there would be worse things that could happen, and that -- look, i was at the border last week. i'm going to tell you, it's worse than it's -- this is my 8th trip in 10 years, it is as a bad now as identify ever seen id this is a crisis in our country.

maria: i wonder if a government shutdown would pretty a panic in the markets, or would they just egg e near it, ryan in. >> i think it could cause panic short term, but when you look at the overall a macro view, i'm hard pressed to -- there's still $7 trillion sitting in cash. when you net out inflation and taxes, you're making nothing on your money if you're getting 5%, and you've got earnings growth double digits this year and probably going into next year, and if you take the magnificent seven out of it, valuations are historically normal to cheap. i'm like a kid in a candy store. this is one of the better opportunities we've had in my lifetime to get invested. i say don't wait here. that's what investors did last year, and it's been a big mistake. maria: hey, you've been bright so far, so i'm not going against your advice there. kelly, the deadlines are coming, the clock is ticking, march 1st and march 8th. >> yeah, you know, i'm with ryan. i'm not sure that we would see that fluctuate in the market because i also think we've seen this happen so many times of,

oh, we get close to it, no, we're saved. i do want to put the magnificent seven, ryan, back into the conversation because i think if you don't see those rate cuts as the panel, some are circling and it -- around a it we may not see a rate cut, the magnificent seven are not going to stop investing in a. i.. and i think then what you're going to see the the year of efficiency which could mean more layoffs in order to assure they can afford that investment in a.i. maria: kevin, what you're focused on in terms of the right read for economic growth for '24. >> i think that i just want to say that we all have to remember that if the fed can't cut rates because the data are strong, then that strong data is the reason for the market to be optimistic about profits and so on. so when you say, okay, if everything stays the same and we don't cut rates, how bad is it? you're right, maria, it's really bad, but the not cutting rates

is going to happen because profits are surprise on the upside, so a little bit down feels about right to me. maria: i think i agree you, ryan, that we'll see at least one cut. i think the fed really wants to cut, i mean, at some point. but kevin is making the right point, inflation is till a problem. cheryl, where are we on inflation? >> obviously, the story is not good as far as the inflation picture goes. and i will say final thing about a.i. just really quirk you know, companies are cutting jobs because they're investing in a.i. that's a consumer story. maria: great point. great conversation, everybody. kevin has set, buddy carter, paul chris e for examplar ryan payne, kelly o'grady, cheryl casone knit. all hands on deck this morning. dow industrials down 363 with about 30 minutes to go. let's send it right over stu. take it away. stuart: good morning, maria. good morning, everyone. it's another of those big numbers that can move markets, and this one has. it is the consumer price index. in the last 12 months consumer prices up 3.1. now, tha